Quant Technicals in Focus For Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR), NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN)

At the time of writing, Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) has a Piotroski F-Score of 3. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

As many veteran investors have already seen, market movements are extremely hard to accurately predict. Financial news outlets are always producing headlines and offering predictions for future market performance. Sometimes the predictions are right, and sometimes the predictions are wrong. Investors may have a hard time separating fact from fiction when it comes to bullish and bearish sentiment. Adjusting the portfolio based strictly on headlines can be tempting for the amateur investor. Filtering out the noise and focusing on the pertinent data can help keep the individual focused and on track. Straying from the plan and basing investment decisions on news headlines may lead to portfolio confusion down the road. Crunching the numbers and paying attention to the important economic data can greatly help the investor see through the smoke when markets get muddled.

SMA 50/200

Ever wonder how investors predict positive share price momentum? The Cross SMA 50/200, also known as the “Golden Cross” is the fifty day moving average divided by the two hundred day moving average. The SMA 50/200 for Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) is currently 1.15370. If the Golden Cross is greater than 1, then the 50 day moving average is above the 200 day moving average – indicating a positive share price momentum. If the Golden Cross is less than 1, then the 50 day moving average is below the 200 day moving average, indicating that the price might drop.

The price to book ratio or market to book ratio for Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) currently stands at 0.461809.  The ratio is calculated by dividing the stock price per share by the book value per share.  This ratio is used to determine how the market values the equity.  A ratio of under 1 typically indicates that the shares are undervalued.  A ratio over 1 indicates that the market is willing to pay more for the shares.  There are often many underlying factors that come into play with the Price to Book ratio so all additional metrics should be considered as well. 

The C-Score is a system developed by James Montier that helps determine whether a company is involved in falsifying their financial statements.  The C-Score is calculated by a variety of items, including a growing difference in net income verse cash flow, increasing days outstanding, growing days sales of inventory, increasing assets to sales, declines in depreciation, and high total asset growth.  The C-Score of Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) is 2.00000.  The score ranges on a scale of -1 to 6.  If the score is -1, then there is not enough information to determine the C-Score.  If the number is at zero (0) then there is no evidence of fraudulent book cooking, whereas a number of 6 indicates a high likelihood of fraudulent activity. The C-Score assists investors in assessing the likelihood of a company cheating in the books.

Turning to Free Cash Flow Growth (FCF Growth), this is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow.  The FCF Growth of Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) is 0.835310.  Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure.  This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends.  The Free Cash Flow Score (FCF Score) is a helpful tool in calculating the free cash flow growth with free cash flow stability – this gives investors the overall quality of the free cash flow.  

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) is 57.854000.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  

The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) is 59.656400.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 58.393000.

MF Rank

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price. The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital. The MF Rank of Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) is 12492. A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in. The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

The Q.i. Value of Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) is 58.00000.  The Q.i. Value is a helpful tool in determining if a company is undervalued or not.  The Q.i. Value is calculated using the following ratios: EBITDA Yield, Earnings Yield, FCF Yield, and Liquidity.  The lower the Q.i. value, the more undervalued the company is thought to be.

Value Composite
The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) is 26.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) is 35.

ERP5 Rank

The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies. The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC. The ERP5 of Argonaut Gold Inc. (TSX:AR) is 10907. The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is thought to be.

As we move closer towards the end of the year, investors may be undertaking a portfolio review. Reviewing trades over the past six months, investors should be able to see what has worked and what has not. There might be some stocks that have outperformed the market, and there might be some underperformers as well. Focusing on what has worked so far this year may help provide a clearer picture for future moves. Pinpointing what went wrong can also help the investor see which areas of the portfolio need improvement. If the stock market continues on to reach new heights, investors might be looking to lock in some profits before making the next big trade.   

NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) has a Piotroski F-Score of 6 at the time of writing. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers.

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Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

Investing in the stock market has traditionally offered bigger returns than other types of investments. Along with the opportunity for higher returns comes a higher amount of risk. Stocks can be exposed to both market risk and business or financial risk. Market risk may be evident when the overall market takes a nose dive. Investors may hold stock of a company that has been performing great, but due to poor market conditions, the stock decreases in value. Investors may look to offset this risk by investing in other vehicles that don’t tend to move together. The business risk with stocks involves factors that may cause a company to perform poorly. This may include bad management, heightened competition, and declining company profits. Investors may try to limit this risk by creating a diversified portfolio including stocks from different sectors.

Current Ratio

The Current Ratio of NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is 2.10. The Current Ratio is used by investors to determine whether a company can pay short term and long term debts. The current ratio looks at all the liquid and non-liquid assets compared to the company’s total current liabilities. A high current ratio indicates that the company might have trouble managing their working capital. A low current ratio (when the current liabilities are higher than the current assets) indicates that the company may have trouble paying their short term obligations.

The Return on Invested Capital (aka ROIC) for NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is -0.144394.  The Return on Invested Capital is a ratio that determines whether a company is profitable or not.  It tells investors how well a company is turning their capital into profits.  The ROIC is calculated by dividing the net operating profit (or EBIT) by the employed capital.  The employed capital is calculated by subrating current liabilities from total assets.  Similarly, the Return on Invested Capital Quality ratio is a tool in evaluating the quality of a company’s ROIC over the course of five years.  The ROIC Quality of NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is 1.428045.  This is calculated by dividing the five year average ROIC by the Standard Deviation of the 5 year ROIC.  The ROIC 5 year average is calculated using the five year average EBIT, five year average (net working capital and net fixed assets).  The ROIC 5 year average of NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is -0.076808.

The Gross Margin Score is calculated by looking at the Gross Margin and the overall stability of the company over the course of 8 years. The score is a number between one and one hundred (1 being best and 100 being the worst). The Gross Margin Score of NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is 20.00000. The more stable the company, the lower the score. If a company is less stable over the course of time, they will have a higher score.

MF Rank

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price. The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital. The MF Rank of NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is 14073. A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in. The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

The Q.i. Value of NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is 55.00000.  The Q.i. Value is a helpful tool in determining if a company is undervalued or not.  The Q.i. Value is calculated using the following ratios: EBITDA Yield, Earnings Yield, FCF Yield, and Liquidity.  The lower the Q.i. value, the more undervalued the company is thought to be.

Turning to Free Cash Flow Growth (FCF Growth), this is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow.  The FCF Growth of NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is 1.407720.  Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure.  This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends.  The Free Cash Flow Score (FCF Score) is a helpful tool in calculating the free cash flow growth with free cash flow stability – this gives investors the overall quality of the free cash flow.  

Value Composite
The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is 53.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  

The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is 61.

Volatility
Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is 73.033300.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  

The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is 72.727600.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 74.811600.

ERP5 Rank

The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies. The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC. The ERP5 of NeoPhotonics Corporation (NYSE:NPTN) is 14168. The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is thought to be.

Investors often hear the saying “buy low, sell high”. This may seem highly obvious to anybody looking to get into the stock market. Even though investors typically know they should do this, novices tend to do just the opposite, buy high and sell low. Often times, amateur investors will get carried away when a stock is trending higher. They may attempt to get in on the stock after a big move with hopes of the stock going higher and an overall thought that relates to the fear of missing out. Often times, investors will find themselves in a precarious situation when this occurs. They might have taken a chance on a stock that maybe was too good to be true. Investors may regret buying after the big move when the price has far exceeded the underlying value. Closely watching the fundamentals may help investors avoid getting into sticky situations such as buying too high.  

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